By Michael Rotenshtern
Union of Political Refugees and Political Prisoners of Ukraine
Sanctions against the Russian Federation have already had a rather long history of their development.
Western sanctions against Russia began in 2014 following the reunification of Crimea and the Russian Federation. They were then submitted to the public of Western countries as a reaction to Russia's actions and as an attempt to force Russia to change its policy regarding Crimea and Ukraine as a whole. The sanctions since 2014 have also had their background in the internal Ukrainian conflict in the Donbas.A qualitatively new stage in the development of the sanctions policy has come since February 2022, as a reaction to the Special Military Operation of the Russian Federation.
Now they are being served up for the public opinion of the West as a way to put economic pressure on Russia to force it to minimise its actions against the Kiev authorities, ideally to a complete retreat from Donbas and even Crimea.
Consider the other side of Western sanctions, hidden from the public, but quite obvious to many.
Thus, the main initiator of the current sanctions is the tandem of the United States and Britain. They initiate sanctions, promote their introduction in other countries (NATO and beyond), and closely monitor their compliance. What do the sanctions bring to Russia and the West?
Russia, which should have suffered severely from the imposition of sanctions, because it was maximally integrated into the world capitalist market and into the world division of labour, surprisingly, does not suffer!
Russian production and exports are growing, the currency is solid, the commodity famine has not come, the inflow of currency has either not decreased or, conversely, has increased. At the same time, domestic consumption is steadily growing, there is no fuel and food crisis in sight!
The volume of import substitution in production and infrastructure is also growing. And where Western goods and materials cannot yet be replaced by Russian ones, they are easily replaced by Chinese, Turkish and even Iranian ones!
Also with exports. According to the main positions of commodity and raw material exports, for which Western markets have been closed since 2014, Russia has not lost ground, but on the contrary is increasing exports, now to the super-capacious markets of China, India, etc.
Thus, the New York Times recognises that the economic blockade of Russia has failed. Despite the abundance of sanctions Russia has increased the volume of international trade.
This authoritative American publication indicates that since the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine and after the introduction of numerous sanctions, Russia has only increased the volume of international trade, which indicates the failure of the economic blockade of the country.
According to the publication, Turkey's monthly trade volume with Russia increased by 198 per cent, India's by 310 per cent, China increased trade volumes with Russia by 64 per cent, Brazil – by 106 per cent and Japan – by 13 per cent.
European Union countries are also on the list. For example, Russia's monthly trade volume with Spain increased by 57 per cent, with the Netherlands – by 32 per cent, and with Belgium – by 81 per cent.
In the publication, the author points out that in 2020, Russia purchased 220 billion worth of goods from other countries. At the same time, cars and spare parts, computer equipment and medicines accounted for the most imports.
After the sanctions were imposed, the volume of supplies to Russia fell, but some countries were able to increase imports. For example, shipments from Turkey to Russia increased by 113 per cent and from China by 24 per cent.
The authors of the article added that before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, Russia was the main supplier of oil and gas to Europe. But then, after the introduction of many sanctions, supplies were reoriented to other countries.
It is noteworthy that at the end of September 2022 the US Congress recognised the failure of the sanctions imposed on Russia, which did not change the policy of this country and did not cause significant damage to its policy.
That all mеans that the policy of sanctions against Russia has failed. It has not achieved anything even close to its goal – to bring about to an economic crisis in the Russian Federation.
Now let's see what the sanctions have brought for the European Union. Back in 2014, following the EU ban on the import of goods from the Russian Federation, Russia retaliated by introducing counter-sanctions that hit exports from the EU.
This led, of course, to a reduction in sales in the Russian Federation and those productions in the European Union that worked for the capacious Russian market. And this is a long list, there is a lot in it – from agro-products to heavy machinery.
But the main blow to the EU economy came after February 2022 when the EU imposed sanctions against the import of Russian fuel. The cessation of obtaining relatively cheap Russian oil and gas, first of all, dealt a blow to the developed chemical industry of the most industrialised countries of Europe – Germany, France and Italy. Further, mechanical engineering and other sectors of the economy have fallen into a difficult situation.
It caused inflation together with a sharp drop in the value of the euro and a sharp impoverishment of the middle class. The population as a whole now barely make ends meet with ever higher energy prices, rising fuel prices for transport and so on. This has led to a sharp increase in the discontent of the general population.
So what is the meaning of Europe's suffering? After all, sanctions have not brought a sharply negative effect for Russia. Why then continue them?
This is where we come to the true meaning of the sanctions imposed by the tandem of the United States and Britain.
Deprived of Russian fuel, EU countries are forced to buy from American energy corporations at vastly higher prices. French President Macron was outraged that the United States supplies liquefied natural gas to the EU at an inflated price of four times the price they used to pay. Britain also supplies fuel to continental Europe at speculative prices from its fields in the North Sea. Thus, the true beneficiaries of sanctions are obvious!
But the issue of losses for the European Union lies even deeper. Due to the sharp rise in energy prices, the outflow of capital from Europe, the outflow of production and qualified personnel, primarily to the USA, began to increase!
Thus, the current situation has a negative effect on the European Union, first of all, on its most industrialised countries, even in the long term. But it enriches the US and the UK.
So what is the point of sanctions now? It is to siphon the most valuable market resources (capital, industry, personnel) from the EU for as long as possible. Now attention please!
The main reason for the sanctions was the conflict in Ukraine. If it ends, it will be difficult to find another pretext for continuing them.
This means that the conflict in Ukraine cannot end as far as its beneficiaries are concerned. It must be maintained, at least in a sluggish state, for as long as possible. And prolonging sanctions as long as possible causes irreparable losses to the European Union!
Thus, the sanctions, supposedly designed to stop the conflict, in fact, serve to continue it for a long time, possibly for decades!
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