Ukraine has upped the ante in its conflict with Russia, how will Moscow respond? By Sergey Poletaev After Russia and its local allies liberated Severodonetsk and Lisichansk in early July, the fighting in Ukraine subsided somewhat. It seemed as if Moscow was deliberately letting the conflict settle into something with an air of the routine. Relatively little resources were being spent on it, while the state apparatus was working to overcome the effects of sanctions and to adapt the economy. During this time, the military operation was taking place in a kind of ‘standby mode’ against the background of turbulence in the global economy and the deepening energy crisis in Europe. However, in late summer and early autumn, events on the Ukrainian front called into question the prospects for such a frozen state. As we had anticipated, the operational pause on the part of the Russian army led to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) seizing the initiative and eventually launching two counter-